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Probability of Reaching 500 Homeruns

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1954 1953 1952 Yrs Career Needed
1 Eddie Mathews* MIL 3B 22 56.5% 39.8 40 47 25 10.4 112 388
2 Ralph Kiner CHC LF 31 46.6% 28.8 22 35 37 5.0 351 149
3 Duke Snider BRO CF 27 39.0% 37.5 40 42 21 7.3 191 309
4 Gil Hodges BRO 1B 30 24.6% 36.7 42 31 32 5.9 212 288
5 Ted Kluszewski CIN 1B 29 23.5% 40.5 49 40 16 6.1 163 337
6 Willie Mays* NYG CF 23 21.5% 30.8 41 4 10.1 65 435
7 Mickey Mantle* NYY CF 22 10.7% 24.3 27 21 23 10.4 84 416
8 Stan Musial STL RF 33 7.2% 31.0 35 30 21 3.8 292 208
9 Del Ennis PHI LF 29 6.5% 25.5 25 29 20 6.6 204 296
10 Larry Doby CLE CF 30 4.3% 31.0 32 29 32 5.7 176 324
11 Al Rosen CLE 3B 30 2.3% 31.0 24 43 28 5.8 156 344
12 Yogi Berra NYY C 29 1.1% 25.0 22 27 30 6.5 181 319
13 Ted Williams* BOS LF 35 0.0% 21.8 29 13 1 2.5 366 134
14 Vern Stephens BAL 3B 33 0.0% 6.8 8 5 7 3.8 244 256
15 Hank Sauer CHC RF 37 0.0% 33.0 41 19 37 1.6 232 268
16 Sid Gordon PIT RF 36 0.0% 16.5 12 19 25 1.9 195 305
17 Andy Pafko MIL RF 33 0.0% 15.8 14 17 19 4.0 194 306
18 Bobby Thomson MIL LF 30 0.0% 13.7 2 26 24 5.6 183 317
19 Roy Campanella BRO C 32 0.0% 26.8 19 41 22 4.4 177 323
20 Walker Cooper PIT/CHC C 39 0.0% 6.2 7 3 10 1.5 161 339
21 Gus Zernial PHA LF 31 0.0% 25.8 14 42 29 5.4 152 348
22 Eddie Robinson NYY 1B 33 0.0% 12.5 3 22 22 3.9 148 352
23 Enos Slaughter NYY RF 38 0.0% 4.3 1 6 11 1.5 147 353
24 Andy Seminick CIN C 33 0.0% 12.2 7 19 14 3.7 145 355
25 Vic Wertz BAL/CLE 1B 29 0.0% 17.7 15 19 23 6.4 144 356
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