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Probability of Reaching 300 Wins

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1933 1932 1931 Yrs Career Needed
1 Lefty Grove* PHA SP 33 47.3% 25.5 24 25 31 4.0 195 105
2 Lefty Gomez NYY SP 24 26.1% 19.5 16 24 21 9.2 63 237
3 Wes Ferrell CLE SP 25 24.4% 16.8 11 23 22 8.8 102 198
4 Larry French PIT SP 25 16.9% 17.5 18 18 15 8.6 75 225
5 Lon Warneke CHC SP 24 11.0% 16.7 18 22 2 9.4 42 258
6 Dizzy Dean STL SP 23 10.9% 16.0 20 18 9.9 39 261
7 Carl Hubbell NYG SP 30 9.3% 19.8 23 18 14 6.0 100 200
8 Mel Harder CLE SP 23 8.5% 14.7 15 15 13 9.8 55 245
9 Guy Bush CHC SP 31 5.9% 19.0 20 19 16 4.9 134 166
10 Hal Schumacher NYG SP 22 4.1% 14.3 19 5 1 10.4 25 275
11 Ed Brandt BSN SP 28 3.3% 17.3 18 16 18 7.0 73 227
12 Van Mungo BRO SP 22 1.5% 12.8 16 13 3 10.8 32 268
13 Burleigh Grimes CHC/STL SP 39 0.0% 6.3 3 6 17 1.5 266 34
14 Eppa Rixey CIN SP 42 0.0% 5.3 6 5 4 1.5 266 34
15 Red Faber CHW RP 44 0.0% 3.8 3 2 10 1.5 254 46
16 Jack Quinn CIN RP 50 0.0% 1.8 0 3 5 1.5 247 53
17 Herb Pennock NYY SP 39 0.0% 8.3 7 9 11 1.5 238 62
18 Sad Sam Jones CHW SP 40 0.0% 9.8 10 10 9 1.5 213 87
19 Waite Hoyt PIT SP 33 0.0% 6.7 5 6 13 3.7 200 100
20 George Uhle 3 Tms SP 34 0.0% 7.3 7 6 11 3.1 198 102
21 Dazzy Vance STL SP 42 0.0% 8.8 6 12 11 1.5 193 107
22 Jesse Haines STL SP 39 0.0% 7.5 9 3 12 1.5 190 110
23 Dolf Luque NYG RP 42 0.0% 7.2 8 6 7 1.5 189 111
24 Tom Zachary BSN SP 37 0.0% 9.3 7 12 11 1.7 173 127
25 Earl Whitehill WAS SP 34 0.0% 18.5 22 16 13 3.4 155 145
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