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Probability of Reaching 500 Homeruns

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1933 1932 1931 Yrs Career Needed
1 Babe Ruth* NYY RF 38 100.0% 38.3 34 41 46 1.5 686 0
2 Jimmie Foxx* PHA 1B 25 83.9% 48.3 48 58 30 8.6 222 278
3 Lou Gehrig NYY 1B 30 54.1% 35.0 32 34 46 6.0 299 201
4 Mel Ott* NYG RF 24 34.1% 29.0 23 38 29 9.4 176 324
5 Chuck Klein PHI RF 28 19.7% 31.8 28 38 31 6.8 191 309
6 Rogers Hornsby STL/SLB 2B 37 0.0% 4.5 3 1 16 1.7 299 201
7 Hack Wilson BRO LF 33 0.0% 14.3 9 23 13 4.1 238 262
8 Al Simmons CHW LF 31 0.0% 22.3 14 35 22 5.3 222 278
9 Goose Goslin WAS RF 32 0.0% 14.7 10 17 24 4.4 196 304
10 Jim Bottomley CIN 1B 33 0.0% 11.7 13 11 9 4.1 194 306
11 Gabby Hartnett CHC C 32 0.0% 13.3 16 12 8 4.5 154 346
12 Babe Herman CHC RF 30 0.0% 16.3 16 16 18 6.0 143 357
13 Bill Terry NYG 1B 34 0.0% 13.8 6 28 9 3.2 138 362
14 Chick Hafey CIN CF 30 0.0% 6.8 7 2 16 5.8 136 364
15 Tony Lazzeri NYY 2B 29 0.0% 15.3 18 15 8 6.3 114 386
16 Earl Averill CLE CF 31 0.0% 21.5 11 32 32 5.3 112 388
17 Marty McManus BOS 3B 33 0.0% 3.8 3 5 4 4.0 112 388
18 Bing Miller PHA RF 38 0.0% 4.7 2 7 8 1.5 111 389
19 Don Hurst PHI 1B 27 0.0% 13.8 8 24 11 7.3 110 390
20 Mickey Cochrane PHA C 30 0.0% 18.0 15 23 17 5.9 108 392
21 Kiki Cuyler CHC LF 34 0.0% 7.3 5 10 9 3.1 107 393
22 George Grantham CIN 2B 33 0.0% 5.7 4 6 10 4.1 104 396
23 Lefty O'Doul BRO/NYG LF 36 0.0% 15.2 14 21 7 2.2 104 396
24 Travis Jackson NYG 3B 29 0.0% 2.2 0 4 5 6.2 103 397
25 Wally Berger BSN CF 27 0.0% 22.3 27 17 19 7.4 101 399
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