Choose Metric:

Probability of Reaching 500 Homeruns

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1930 1929 1928 Yrs Career Needed
1 Babe Ruth* NYY RF 35 100.0% 48.8 49 46 54 2.8 565 0
2 Lou Gehrig NYY 1B 27 41.1% 36.7 41 35 27 7.8 187 313
3 Hack Wilson CHC CF 30 38.6% 46.2 56 39 31 5.9 193 307
4 Mel Ott* NYG RF 21 29.8% 29.5 25 42 18 11.2 86 414
5 Jimmie Foxx* PHA 1B 22 29.4% 31.7 37 33 13 10.4 86 414
6 Chuck Klein PHI RF 25 26.3% 36.2 40 43 11 8.6 94 406
7 Al Simmons PHA LF 28 15.1% 31.8 36 34 15 7.1 151 349
8 Wally Berger BSN LF 24 6.5% 28.5 38 9.2 38 462
9 Chick Hafey STL LF 27 2.9% 27.2 26 29 27 7.6 111 389
10 Babe Herman BRO RF 27 0.7% 26.5 35 21 12 7.8 93 407
11 Rogers Hornsby CHC 2B 34 0.0% 17.5 2 39 21 3.5 279 221
12 Cy Williams PHI RF 42 0.0% 3.7 0 5 12 1.5 251 249
13 Harry Heilmann CIN RF 35 0.0% 16.8 19 15 14 2.5 183 317
14 Jim Bottomley STL 1B 30 0.0% 22.3 15 29 31 5.9 161 339
15 Bob Meusel CIN LF 33 0.0% 10.2 10 10 11 3.6 156 344
16 Goose Goslin WAS/SLB LF 29 0.0% 27.8 37 18 17 6.2 145 355
17 High Pockets Kelly CIN/CHC 1B 34 0.0% 6.2 8 5 3 3.1 144 356
18 Gabby Hartnett CHC C 29 0.0% 27.8 37 1 14 6.3 118 382
19 George Sisler BSN 1B 37 0.0% 2.8 3 2 4 1.6 102 398
20 Marty McManus DET 3B 30 0.0% 11.8 9 18 8 5.8 100 400
21 Bill Terry NYG 1B 31 0.0% 19.0 23 14 17 5.0 95 405
22 Travis Jackson NYG SS 26 0.0% 15.8 13 21 14 8.0 94 406
23 Bing Miller PHA RF 35 0.0% 8.5 9 8 8 2.5 94 406
24 Frankie Frisch STL 2B 32 0.0% 8.3 10 5 10 4.3 89 411
25 George Grantham PIT 2B 30 0.0% 14.7 18 12 10 5.9 84 416
Page: 1 , 2 , 3 ... 20