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Probability of Reaching 500 Homeruns

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1925 1924 1923 Yrs Career Needed
1 Babe Ruth* NYY RF 30 54.6% 34.7 25 46 41 5.8 309 191
2 Rogers Hornsby STL 2B 29 12.2% 30.7 39 25 17 6.5 180 320
3 Cy Williams PHI RF 37 0.0% 21.3 13 24 41 1.5 186 314
4 Ken Williams SLB LF 35 0.0% 23.3 25 18 29 3.0 151 349
5 Zack Wheat BRO LF 37 0.0% 13.0 14 14 8 1.7 126 374
6 Jack Fournier BRO 1B 35 0.0% 23.7 22 27 22 2.5 115 385
7 Harry Heilmann DET RF 30 0.0% 12.8 13 10 18 5.5 112 388
8 High Pockets Kelly NYG 2B 29 0.0% 19.7 20 21 16 6.1 110 390
9 Ty Cobb DET CF 38 0.0% 9.0 12 4 6 1.5 107 393
10 Bob Meusel NYY LF 28 0.0% 24.8 33 12 9 6.6 105 395
11 Tris Speaker CLE CF 37 0.0% 11.8 12 9 17 1.7 105 395
12 Irish Meusel NYG LF 32 0.0% 15.8 21 6 19 4.8 99 401
13 George Sisler SLB 1B 32 0.0% 9.0 12 9 4.6 81 419
14 Wally Pipp NYY 1B 32 0.0% 5.5 3 9 6 4.6 80 420
15 Harry Hooper CHW RF 37 0.0% 8.0 6 10 10 1.5 75 425
16 Baby Doll Jacobson SLB CF 34 0.0% 15.2 15 19 8 3.1 74 426
17 Elmer Smith CIN LF 32 0.0% 6.0 8 7 4.3 70 430
18 Max Carey PIT CF 35 0.0% 6.2 5 8 6 2.7 67 433
19 Bobby Veach 3 Tms RF 37 0.0% 2.0 0 5 2 1.8 64 436
20 Fred Merkle NYY 1B 36 0.0% 0.0 0 2.1 61 439
21 Jack Tobin SLB RF 33 0.0% 3.8 2 2 13 4.1 61 439
22 Casey Stengel BSN RF 34 0.0% 2.5 0 5 5 3.0 60 440
23 George Burns CLE 1B 32 0.0% 5.5 6 4 7 4.6 59 441
24 Bing Miller PHA RF 30 0.0% 9.0 10 6 12 5.5 58 442
25 Tommy Griffith BRO/CHC RF 35 0.0% 5.8 7 3 8 2.6 52 448
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