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Probability of Reaching 500 Homeruns

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1924 1923 1922 Yrs Career Needed
1 Babe Adams PIT SP 42 0.0% 0.2 0 0 1 1.5 3 497
2 Sparky Adams CHC SS 29 0.0% 1.8 1 4 0 6.1 5 495
3 Eddie Ainsmith NYG C 34 0.0% 3.2 0 3 13 3.4 22 478
4 Vic Aldridge CHC SP 30 0.0% 0.0 0 0 0 5.6 0 500
5 Pete Alexander CHC SP 37 0.0% 0.8 1 1 0 1.6 8 492
6 Nick Altrock WAS RP 47 0.0% 0.0 0 1.5 2 498
7 Maurice Archdeacon CHW CF 25 0.0% 0.0 0 0 8.7 0 500
8 Chick Autry NYY C 21 0.0% 0.0 0 11.2 0 500
9 Gene Bailey BRO CF 30 0.0% 0.8 1 1 5.6 2 498
10 Harry Baldwin NYG RP 24 0.0% 0.0 0 9.6 0 500
11 Dave Bancroft BSN SS 33 0.0% 2.0 2 1 4 4.1 27 473
12 Bob Barnes CHW RP 22 0.0% 0.0 0 10.5 0 500
13 Eppie Barnes PIT 1B 23 0.0% 0.0 0 0 9.9 0 500
14 Jesse Barnes BSN SP 31 0.0% 0.0 0 0 0 4.9 0 500
15 Virgil Barnes NYG SP 27 0.0% 0.0 0 0 0 7.6 0 500
16 Clyde Barnhart PIT RF 28 0.0% 4.7 3 9 1 6.9 16 484
17 Edgar Barnhart SLB RP 19 0.0% 0.0 0 12.1 0 500
18 Bill Barrett CHW SS 24 0.0% 1.7 2 2 9.5 4 496
19 Bob Barrett CHC 2B 25 0.0% 3.8 5 0 8.7 5 495
20 Johnny Bassler DET C 29 0.0% 0.8 1 0 0 6.6 1 499
21 Joe Batchelder BSN RP 25 0.0% 0.0 0 0 8.4 0 500
22 Stan Baumgartner PHA SP 29 0.0% 0.0 0 0 6.3 0 500
23 Bill Bayne SLB RP 25 0.0% 0.0 0 0 0 8.9 1 499
24 Walter Beall NYY SP 24 0.0% 0.0 0 9.0 0 500
25 Boom-Boom Beck SLB RP 19 0.0% 0.0 0 12.2 0 500
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