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Probability of Reaching 300 Wins

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1912 1911 1910 Yrs Career Needed
1 Christy Mathewson* NYG SP 31 100.0% 24.7 23 26 27 4.9 312 0
2 Walter Johnson* WAS SP 24 82.3% 29.0 33 25 25 9.2 115 185
3 Smoky Joe Wood BOS SP 22 76.5% 26.7 34 23 12 10.4 81 219
4 Ed Walsh CHW SP 31 65.0% 25.5 27 27 18 5.3 182 118
5 Eddie Plank* PHA SP 36 40.5% 23.3 26 23 16 1.9 251 49
6 Jack Coombs PHA SP 29 34.2% 25.0 21 28 31 6.2 115 185
7 George Mullin DET SP 31 31.0% 15.5 12 18 21 4.8 208 92
8 Chief Bender PHA SP 28 28.4% 16.0 13 17 23 7.1 155 145
9 Rube Marquard NYG SP 25 27.0% 21.7 26 24 4 8.6 59 241
10 Bob Harmon STL SP 24 22.0% 18.8 18 23 13 9.2 60 240
11 Nap Rucker BRO SP 27 21.2% 19.2 18 22 17 7.4 102 198
12 Claude Hendrix PIT SP 23 16.6% 18.0 24 4 10.1 28 272
13 Pete Alexander* PHI SP 25 15.5% 18.8 19 28 8.8 47 253
14 Larry Cheney CHC SP 26 9.3% 19.5 26 1 8.3 27 273
15 Howie Camnitz PIT SP 30 6.8% 19.7 22 20 12 5.5 110 190
16 Hugh Bedient BOS SP 22 5.7% 15.0 20 10.4 20 280
17 Doc Crandall NYG SP 24 5.4% 14.3 13 15 17 9.2 63 237
18 Bob Groom WAS SP 27 5.0% 18.3 24 13 12 7.3 56 244
19 Vean Gregg CLE SP 27 2.7% 17.7 20 23 7.7 43 257
20 Rube Benton CIN SP 22 2.2% 13.5 18 3 0 10.8 21 279
21 Ed Willett DET SP 28 0.1% 15.5 17 13 16 7.0 83 217
22 Jack Powell SLB SP 37 0.0% 8.3 9 8 7 1.5 245 55
23 Clark Griffith WAS 2B 42 0.0% 0.0 0 1.5 237 63
24 Mordecai Brown CHC SP 35 0.0% 13.7 5 21 25 2.6 195 105
25 Doc White CHW SP 33 0.0% 9.8 8 10 15 4.1 187 113
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