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Probability of Reaching 500 Homeruns

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1910 1909 1908 Yrs Career Needed
1 Bill Dahlen BRO - 40 0.0% 1.2 0 2 3 1.5 84 416
2 Nap Lajoie CLE 2B 35 0.0% 3.0 4 1 2 2.5 77 423
3 Harry Davis PHA 1B 36 0.0% 2.7 1 4 5 1.8 74 426
4 Honus Wagner PIT SS 36 0.0% 5.3 4 5 10 2.2 74 426
5 Sam Crawford DET RF 30 0.0% 5.7 5 6 7 5.9 63 437
6 Fred Clarke PIT LF 37 0.0% 2.3 2 3 2 1.5 62 438
7 Cy Seymour NYG CF 37 0.0% 1.7 1 1 5 1.5 52 448
8 Jimmy Sheckard CHC LF 31 0.0% 3.8 5 1 2 5.0 49 451
9 Elmer Flick CLE RF 34 0.0% 0.8 1 0 0 3.3 48 452
10 Tommy Leach PIT CF 32 0.0% 4.8 4 6 5 4.4 45 455
11 Deacon McGuire CLE C 46 0.0% 0.0 0 0 1.5 45 455
12 Ginger Beaumont CHC CF 33 0.0% 1.5 2 0 2 3.6 39 461
13 Harry Lumley BRO RF 29 0.0% 0.7 0 0 4 6.2 38 462
14 Bobby Wallace SLB SS 36 0.0% 0.2 0 0 1 2.0 34 466
15 Bill Bradley CLE 3B 32 0.0% 0.2 0 0 1 4.6 33 467
16 Willie Keeler NYG CF 38 0.0% 0.5 0 1 1 1.5 33 467
17 Tim Jordan BRO - 31 0.0% 3.5 1 3 12 5.2 32 468
18 Danny Murphy PHA RF 33 0.0% 4.3 4 5 4 3.7 32 468
19 Topsy Hartsel PHA LF 36 0.0% 1.0 0 1 4 2.4 31 469
20 Ty Cobb DET CF 23 0.0% 7.7 8 9 4 9.9 28 472
21 Sherry Magee PHI LF 25 0.0% 4.5 6 2 2 8.5 28 472
22 Jake Stahl BOS 1B 31 0.0% 7.5 10 6 2 5.3 28 472
23 Frank Schulte CHC RF 27 0.0% 7.5 10 4 1 7.3 27 473
24 Red Murray NYG RF 26 0.0% 5.5 4 7 7 8.2 26 474
25 Harry Steinfeldt CHC 3B 32 0.0% 1.8 2 2 1 4.3 26 474
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