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Probability of Reaching 300 Wins

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1909 1908 1907 Yrs Career Needed
1 Cy Young* CLE SP 42 100.0% 20.0 19 21 21 1.5 497 0
2 Christy Mathewson* NYG SP 28 93.5% 28.8 25 37 24 6.7 236 64
3 Vic Willis PIT SP 33 92.1% 22.2 22 23 21 4.1 240 60
4 George Mullin DET SP 28 58.6% 23.5 29 17 20 6.6 157 143
5 Ed Walsh CHW SP 28 43.1% 24.8 15 40 24 7.1 110 190
6 Addie Joss CLE SP 29 37.0% 19.5 14 24 27 6.5 155 145
7 Ed Reulbach CHC SP 26 30.7% 20.3 19 24 17 8.1 97 203
8 Mordecai Brown CHC SP 32 24.5% 26.5 27 29 20 4.4 144 156
9 Frank Smith CHW SP 29 18.5% 21.7 25 16 23 6.2 104 196
10 Lefty Leifield PIT SP 25 18.0% 17.8 19 15 20 8.5 77 223
11 Chief Bender PHA SP 25 14.5% 14.3 18 8 16 8.9 102 198
12 Doc White CHW SP 30 14.3% 16.0 11 18 27 5.9 154 146
13 Ed Summers DET SP 24 13.1% 17.5 19 24 9.3 43 257
14 Orval Overall CHC SP 28 13.0% 18.8 20 15 23 7.0 92 208
15 Hooks Wiltse NYG SP 29 10.6% 19.8 20 23 13 6.1 100 200
16 Nick Maddox PIT SP 22 10.3% 15.0 13 23 5 10.4 41 259
17 Howie Camnitz PIT SP 27 9.7% 20.0 25 16 13 7.3 56 244
18 Rube Waddell SLB SP 32 9.6% 15.0 11 19 19 4.4 190 110
19 Eddie Plank* PHA SP 33 9.0% 18.2 19 14 24 3.7 186 114
20 Harry Krause PHA SP 20 4.9% 13.5 18 1 11.4 19 281
21 George McQuillan PHI SP 24 4.2% 14.8 13 23 4 9.5 40 260
22 Ed Willett DET SP 25 2.8% 15.8 21 15 1 8.8 37 263
23 Nap Rucker BRO SP 24 2.6% 14.7 13 17 15 9.2 45 255
24 Jack Powell SLB SP 34 1.5% 13.5 12 16 13 3.0 221 79
25 Clark Griffith CIN SP 39 0.0% 0.0 0 0 1.5 237 63
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