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Probability of Reaching 300 Wins

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1906 1905 1904 Yrs Career Needed
1 Cy Young* BOS SP 39 100.0% 16.8 13 18 26 1.5 436 0
2 Kid Nichols* PHI RP 36 100.0% 7.2 0 11 21 1.9 361 0
3 Christy Mathewson* NYG SP 25 84.3% 26.8 22 31 33 8.5 150 150
4 Jack Chesbro NYY SP 32 43.2% 24.7 23 19 41 4.8 174 126
5 Joe McGinnity NYG SP 35 39.9% 26.3 27 21 35 2.8 217 83
6 Vic Willis PIT SP 30 36.2% 18.5 23 12 18 5.9 174 126
7 George Mullin DET SP 25 31.8% 20.3 21 21 17 8.4 91 209
8 Rube Waddell PHA SP 29 30.2% 20.7 15 27 25 6.2 141 159
9 Addie Joss CLE SP 26 26.8% 19.5 21 20 14 8.3 90 210
10 Frank Owen CHW SP 26 26.6% 21.5 22 21 21 8.1 73 227
11 Jesse Tannehill BOS SP 31 24.6% 17.3 13 22 21 4.8 188 112
12 Al Orth NYY SP 33 22.3% 21.8 27 18 14 3.7 188 112
13 Eddie Plank* PHA SP 30 20.2% 21.8 19 24 26 5.5 129 171
14 Chief Bender PHA SP 22 17.7% 15.2 15 18 10 10.7 60 240
15 Doc White CHW SP 27 15.8% 17.3 18 17 16 7.7 98 202
16 Bob Rhoads CLE SP 26 9.4% 18.0 22 16 10 8.0 59 241
17 Ed Reulbach CHC SP 23 8.1% 15.5 19 18 9.9 37 263
18 Mordecai Brown CHC SP 29 7.3% 21.5 26 18 15 6.2 68 232
19 Johnny Lush PHI SP 20 5.8% 13.5 18 2 0 11.6 20 280
20 Nick Altrock CHW SP 29 5.3% 20.8 20 23 19 6.1 69 231
21 Carl Lundgren CHC SP 26 5.0% 15.7 17 13 17 8.2 67 233
22 Jack Powell SLB SP 31 4.8% 13.7 13 10 23 4.8 180 120
23 Jack Taylor STL/CHC SP 32 2.9% 18.3 20 15 20 4.5 145 155
24 Red Ames NYG SP 23 2.0% 14.0 12 22 4 9.7 40 260
25 Barney Pelty SLB SP 25 1.3% 15.2 16 14 15 8.5 48 252
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