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Probability of Reaching 300 Wins

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1898 1897 1896 Yrs Career Needed
1 Kid Nichols* BSN SP 28 97.7% 30.8 31 31 30 6.7 276 24
2 Cy Young* CLE SP 31 92.8% 24.2 25 21 28 5.2 241 59
3 Amos Rusie NYG SP 27 91.7% 19.3 20 28 7.7 245 55
4 Pink Hawley CIN SP 25 66.6% 23.2 27 18 22 8.7 128 172
5 Frank Killen PIT/WAS SP 27 45.2% 18.7 16 17 30 7.4 154 146
6 Gus Weyhing WAS SP 31 44.3% 11.3 15 2 4.9 241 59
7 Clark Griffith CHC SP 28 41.8% 22.8 24 21 23 6.8 130 170
8 Frank Dwyer CIN SP 30 34.8% 18.0 16 18 24 5.8 176 124
9 Ted Breitenstein CIN SP 29 33.1% 20.7 20 23 18 6.6 137 163
10 Doc McJames BAL SP 23 31.1% 20.5 27 15 12 9.7 55 245
11 Jack Taylor STL SP 25 26.4% 16.2 15 16 20 8.9 111 189
12 Win Mercer WAS SP 24 25.7% 16.8 12 20 25 9.6 87 213
13 Vic Willis BSN SP 22 22.7% 18.8 25 10.7 25 275
14 Ted Lewis BSN SP 25 19.6% 20.2 26 21 1 8.7 48 252
15 Jesse Tannehill PIT SP 23 18.1% 18.8 25 9 9.6 35 265
16 Cy Seymour NYG SP 25 14.0% 18.8 25 18 2 8.7 45 255
17 Jack Powell CLE SP 23 13.3% 17.3 23 15 9.6 38 262
18 Wiley Piatt PHI SP 23 12.7% 18.0 24 9.6 24 276
19 Jouett Meekin NYG SP 31 12.0% 19.0 16 20 26 5.2 141 159
20 Fred Klobedanz BSN SP 27 9.8% 19.2 19 26 6 7.8 51 249
21 Jerry Nops BAL SP 23 9.2% 15.2 16 20 3 10.2 39 261
22 Jim Hughes BAL SP 24 8.1% 17.3 23 9.3 23 277
23 Brickyard Kennedy BRO SP 30 5.7% 16.8 16 18 17 5.6 132 168
24 Jimmy Callahan CHC SP 24 3.0% 15.0 20 12 9.4 33 267
25 Bert Cunningham LOU SP 32 2.1% 21.0 28 14 7 4.4 121 179
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