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Probability of Reaching 500 Homeruns

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1898 1897 1896 Yrs Career Needed
1 Sam Thompson PHI RF 38 0.0% 2.5 1 0 12 1.5 127 373
2 Mike Tiernan NYG LF 31 0.0% 5.3 5 5 7 5.1 106 394
3 Hugh Duffy BSN LF 31 0.0% 8.5 8 11 5 5.0 97 403
4 Jimmy Ryan CHC LF 35 0.0% 4.2 4 5 3 2.8 97 403
5 Jack Clements STL C 33 0.0% 4.3 3 6 5 3.6 76 424
6 Ed Delahanty PHI LF 30 0.0% 5.8 4 5 13 5.6 71 429
7 Bill Joyce NYG 1B 30 0.0% 8.2 10 3 13 5.5 70 430
8 Jake Beckley CIN 1B 30 0.0% 6.0 4 8 8 5.5 69 431
9 Herman Long BSN SS 32 0.0% 5.0 6 3 6 4.7 68 432
10 Bug Holliday CIN CF 31 0.0% 0.7 0 2 0 5.2 65 435
11 George Van Haltren NYG CF 32 0.0% 2.8 2 3 5 4.6 65 435
12 Tom Brown WAS CF 37 0.0% 2.0 0 5 2 1.5 64 436
13 Ed McKean CLE SS 34 0.0% 6.8 9 2 7 3.6 63 437
14 Bobby Lowe BSN 2B 32 0.0% 4.0 4 5 2 4.2 60 440
15 Billy Nash PHI 3B 33 0.0% 0.5 0 0 3 4.2 60 440
16 Walt Wilmot NYG RF 34 0.0% 1.5 2 1 3.2 58 442
17 Bill Dahlen CHC SS 28 0.0% 4.0 1 6 9 6.9 57 443
18 George Davis NYG SS 27 0.0% 5.3 2 10 6 7.3 56 444
19 Bid McPhee CIN 2B 38 0.0% 1.0 1 1 1 1.5 52 448
20 Duke Farrell WAS C 31 0.0% 0.8 1 0 2 4.9 48 452
21 Germany Smith STL SS 39 0.0% 1.0 1 0 3 1.5 47 453
22 Mike Griffin BRO CF 33 0.0% 2.3 2 2 4 4.0 42 458
23 Tommy Tucker BRO/STL 1B 34 0.0% 2.5 1 5 2 3.2 42 458
24 Deacon McGuire WAS C 34 0.0% 2.2 1 4 2 3.2 41 459
25 Joe Kelley BAL CF 26 0.0% 4.0 2 5 8 8.1 40 460
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