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Probability of Reaching 500 Homeruns

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1897 1896 1895 Yrs Career Needed
1 Roger Connor STL 1B 40 0.0% 5.5 1 11 8 1.5 138 362
2 Sam Thompson PHI RF 37 0.0% 7.0 0 12 18 1.6 126 374
3 Mike Tiernan NYG RF 30 0.0% 6.0 5 7 7 5.7 101 399
4 Cap Anson CHC 1B 45 0.0% 2.5 3 2 2 1.5 97 403
5 Fred Pfeffer CHC 2B 37 0.0% 0.7 0 2 0 1.6 94 406
6 Jimmy Ryan CHC RF 34 0.0% 4.5 5 3 6 3.4 93 407
7 Hugh Duffy BSN LF 30 0.0% 8.7 11 5 9 5.6 89 411
8 Jack Clements PHI C 32 0.0% 6.8 6 5 13 4.2 73 427
9 Buck Ewing CIN 1B 37 0.0% 1.2 0 1 5 1.5 71 429
10 Ed Delahanty PHI LF 29 0.0% 8.7 5 13 11 6.2 67 433
11 Jake Beckley NYG/CIN 1B 29 0.0% 7.5 8 8 5 6.1 65 435
12 Bug Holliday CIN LF 30 0.0% 1.5 2 0 0 5.8 65 435
13 Tom Brown WAS CF 36 0.0% 3.8 5 2 3 1.9 64 436
14 George Van Haltren NYG CF 31 0.0% 4.5 3 5 8 5.2 63 437
15 Herman Long BSN SS 31 0.0% 5.0 3 6 9 5.3 62 438
16 Denny Lyons PIT 1B 31 0.0% 2.7 2 4 2 5.2 62 438
17 Bill Joyce NYG 3B 29 0.0% 8.7 3 13 17 6.1 60 440
18 Billy Nash PHI 3B 32 0.0% 2.7 0 3 10 4.8 60 440
19 Bill Dahlen CHC SS 27 0.0% 7.2 6 9 7 7.5 56 444
20 Bobby Lowe BSN 2B 31 0.0% 4.3 5 2 7 4.8 56 444
21 Walt Wilmot NYG LF 33 0.0% 1.8 1 8 3.8 56 444
22 George Davis NYG SS 26 0.0% 7.8 10 6 5 7.9 54 446
23 Ed McKean CLE SS 33 0.0% 4.7 2 7 8 4.2 54 446
24 Bid McPhee CIN 2B 37 0.0% 1.0 1 1 1 1.5 51 449
25 Duke Farrell WAS C 30 0.0% 0.8 0 2 1 5.5 47 453
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