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Probability of Reaching 500 Homeruns

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1888 1887 1886 Yrs Career Needed
1 Dan Brouthers DET 1B 30 0.0% 10.3 9 12 11 5.9 74 426
2 Harry Stovey PHA LF 31 0.0% 7.0 9 4 7 5.1 70 430
3 Fred Pfeffer CHC 2B 28 0.0% 10.5 8 16 7 7.0 63 437
4 Cap Anson CHC 1B 36 0.0% 10.0 12 7 10 2.3 62 438
5 Ned Williamson CHC SS 30 0.0% 8.0 8 9 6 5.6 61 439
6 Charley Jones KCC LF 36 0.0% 2.7 0 5 6 2.3 56 444
7 John Reilly CIN 1B 29 0.0% 10.8 13 10 6 6.2 54 446
8 Roger Connor NYG 1B 31 0.0% 13.8 14 17 7 5.4 53 447
9 Jerry Denny IND 3B 29 0.0% 11.2 12 11 9 6.4 52 448
10 King Kelly BSN C 30 0.0% 7.8 9 8 4 5.7 52 448
11 George Wood PHI LF 29 0.0% 8.3 6 14 4 6.2 51 449
12 Paul Hines IND CF 33 0.0% 6.8 4 10 9 4.0 49 451
13 Jim O'Rourke NYG LF 37 0.0% 3.2 4 3 1 1.5 43 457
14 Abner Dalrymple PIT LF 30 0.0% 1.2 0 2 3 5.5 42 458
15 Hardy Richardson DET 2B 33 0.0% 7.5 6 8 11 4.1 42 458
16 John Morrill BSN 1B 33 0.0% 7.2 4 12 7 4.0 41 459
17 Fred Dunlap PIT 2B 29 0.0% 3.3 1 5 7 6.5 39 461
18 Charlie Bennett DET C 33 0.0% 4.2 5 3 4 3.8 38 462
19 Buck Ewing NYG C 28 0.0% 5.7 6 6 4 6.8 37 463
20 Sam Wise BSN SS 30 0.0% 5.7 4 9 4 5.5 33 467
21 Sam Thompson DET RF 28 0.0% 8.0 6 11 8 7.0 32 468
22 Pete Browning LOU CF 27 0.0% 3.2 3 4 2 7.8 31 469
23 Frank Fennelly CIN/PHA SS 28 0.0% 5.2 3 8 6 7.0 31 469
24 Jimmy Ryan CHC CF 25 0.0% 12.3 16 11 4 8.8 31 469
25 Joe Hornung BSN LF 31 0.0% 3.5 3 5 2 5.4 30 470
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