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Probability of Reaching 300 Wins

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1888 1887 1886 Yrs Career Needed
1 Pud Galvin* PIT SP 31 100.0% 25.7 23 28 29 5.1 305 0
2 Tim Keefe* NYG SP 31 96.9% 36.2 35 35 42 5.1 263 37
3 Mickey Welch* NYG SP 28 95.2% 25.8 26 22 33 6.6 258 42
4 John Clarkson* BSN SP 27 89.4% 35.2 33 38 36 7.8 171 129
5 Tony Mullane CIN SP 29 89.2% 28.8 26 31 33 6.3 192 108
6 Ed Morris PIT SP 25 84.6% 26.0 29 14 41 8.5 157 143
7 Bob Caruthers BRO SP 24 84.2% 29.2 29 29 30 9.3 135 165
8 Silver King STL SP 20 81.8% 33.8 45 32 1 11.7 78 222
9 Matt Kilroy BAL SP 22 80.2% 28.7 17 46 29 10.8 92 208
10 Old Hoss Radbourn* BSN SP 33 76.3% 16.0 7 24 27 3.9 251 49
11 Ed Seward PHA SP 21 74.6% 26.3 35 25 11.4 60 240
12 Charlie Buffinton PHI SP 27 67.2% 22.2 28 21 7 7.8 153 147
13 Mike Smith CIN SP 20 63.4% 23.0 22 34 4 11.8 60 240
14 Pretzels Getzien DET SP 24 60.5% 24.2 19 29 30 9.4 95 205
15 Pete Conway DET SP 21 52.7% 22.5 30 8 11 11.0 59 241
16 Toad Ramsey LOU SP 23 52.3% 22.7 8 37 38 9.7 86 214
17 Gus Weyhing PHA SP 21 50.9% 22.7 28 26 10.9 54 246
18 Jim Whitney WAS SP 30 44.4% 19.0 18 24 12 5.6 187 113
19 Nat Hudson STL SP 19 40.6% 18.8 25 4 16 12.3 45 255
20 Ice Box Chamberlain LOU/STL SP 20 34.7% 18.8 25 18 0 11.6 43 257
21 Lee Viau CIN SP 21 30.2% 20.3 27 10.8 27 273
22 Dan Casey PHI SP 25 26.6% 20.3 14 28 24 8.6 71 229
23 Mickey Hughes BRO SP 21 24.9% 18.8 25 11.0 25 275
24 Gus Krock CHC SP 22 23.0% 18.8 25 10.7 25 275
25 Jersey Bakley CLE SP 24 20.0% 18.8 25 9.5 46 254
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