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Probability of Reaching 300 Wins

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1872 1871 1870 Yrs Career Needed
1 Al Spalding BOS SP 21 77.1% 28.5 38 19 10.9 57 243
2 Candy Cummings NYM SP 23 40.6% 24.8 33 9.8 33 267
3 Bobby Mathews BAL SP 20 31.1% 18.8 25 6 11.6 31 269
4 Dick McBride PHA SP 25 30.1% 22.5 30 18 9.0 48 252
5 George Zettlein TRO/ECK SP 27 0.0% 13.5 15 18 7.2 33 267
6 Rynie Wolters CLE SP 30 0.0% 6.8 3 16 5.8 19 281
7 Asa Brainard OLY/MID SP 31 0.0% 5.0 2 12 5.1 14 286
8 Cherokee Fisher BAL SP 27 0.0% 7.5 10 4 7.4 14 286
9 John McMullin NYM LF 23 0.0% 4.5 1 12 10.1 13 287
10 Al Pratt CLE SP 24 0.0% 4.3 2 10 9.2 12 288
11 Jim Britt BRA SP 16 0.0% 6.8 9 14.2 9 291
12 Frank Buttery MID SP 21 0.0% 2.3 3 11.3 3 297
13 Phonney Martin TRO/ECK SP 26 0.0% 2.3 3 7.9 3 297
14 Cy Bentley MID SP 21 0.0% 1.5 2 11.0 2 298
15 Bill Stearns WAS SP 19 0.0% 0.7 0 2 12.4 2 298
16 Harry Wright BOS RP 37 0.0% 0.8 1 1 1.5 2 298
17 Charlie Pabor CLE SP 25 0.0% 0.8 1 0 8.5 1 299
18 Martin Malone ECK RF 0.0% 0.0 0 24.0 0 300
19 James McDermott ECK SP 26 0.0% 0.0 0 8.1 0 300
20 O'Rourke ECK SP 0.0% 0.0 0 24.0 0 300
21 George Bechtel NYM RF 23 0.0% 0.0 1 9.7 1 299
22 Bob Ferguson BRA 3B 27 0.0% 0.0 0 7.6 0 300
23 Frank Fleet ECK 3B 24 0.0% 0.0 0 9.3 0 300
24 Dickie Flowers PHA SS 22 0.0% 0.0 0 10.5 0 300
25 Denny Mack PHA 1B 22 0.0% 0.0 0 10.5 0 300
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