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Probability of Reaching 500 Homeruns

Bill James' Favorite Toy


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 1872 1871 1870 Yrs Career Needed
1 Lip Pike BAL RF 27 0.0% 4.5 6 4 7.7 10 490
2 Fred Treacey PHA CF 25 0.0% 2.3 2 4 8.7 6 494
3 Levi Meyerle PHA RF 23 0.0% 1.8 1 4 10.2 5 495
4 Ned Cuthbert PHA LF 27 0.0% 1.5 1 3 7.8 4 496
5 John Bass BRA RF 24 0.0% 1.0 0 3 9.3 3 497
6 Count Gedney TRO/ECK CF 23 0.0% 2.3 3 10.1 3 497
7 George Hall BAL CF 23 0.0% 1.2 1 2 10.0 3 497
8 Ezra Sutton CLE 3B 22 0.0% 1.0 0 3 10.3 3 497
9 Jimmy Wood TRO/ECK 2B 28 0.0% 1.5 2 1 6.9 3 497
10 Tom York BAL LF 21 0.0% 1.2 1 2 10.8 3 497
11 Doug Allison TRO/ECK C 25 0.0% 0.7 0 2 8.4 2 498
12 Tom Carey BAL 2B 25 0.0% 1.5 2 0 8.6 2 498
13 Cherokee Fisher BAL SP 27 0.0% 0.8 1 1 7.4 2 498
14 Charlie Gould BOS 1B 24 0.0% 0.7 0 2 9.1 2 498
15 Dick Higham BAL C 20 0.0% 1.5 2 0 11.4 2 498
16 Charlie Hodes TRO SS 24 0.0% 0.7 0 2 9.3 2 498
17 Marshall King TRO CF 22 0.0% 0.7 0 2 10.5 2 498
18 Andy Leonard BOS LF 26 0.0% 1.5 2 0 8.3 2 498
19 George Wright BOS SS 25 0.0% 1.5 2 0 8.7 2 498
20 Ross Barnes BOS 2B 22 0.0% 0.8 1 0 10.7 1 499
21 George Bechtel NYM RF 23 0.0% 0.3 0 1 9.7 1 499
22 Bill Boyd NYM 3B 19 0.0% 0.8 1 12.3 1 499
23 Henry Burroughs OLY CF 27 0.0% 0.3 0 1 7.6 1 499
24 John Clapp MID C 20 0.0% 0.8 1 11.4 1 499
25 Chick Fulmer NYM SS 21 0.0% 0.8 1 0 11.2 1 499
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