Select Metric:

Baseball Hall of Fame

317 Hall of Famers
250 Players
23 Managers
34 Pioneers/Executives
10 Umpires
Committees Era Upcoming
Today's Game 1988-Pres 2018, 2021, 2023
Modern Baseball 1970-1987 2017, 2019, 2022
Golden Days 1950-1969 2020, 2025, 2030
Early Baseball 1871-1949 2020, 2030, 2040

Active Players

Probability of Hall of Fame


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 2017 2016 2015 Yrs Career Needed HOFer
1 Albert Pujols LAA 1B 37 100.0% 0.1 -1.8 1.4 3.1 1.5 99.4 0.0 66.3
2 Adrian Beltre TEX 3B 38 100.0% 5.0 3.7 6.5 5.8 1.5 93.9 0.0 66.7
3 Miguel Cabrera DET 1B 34 100.0% 2.1 -0.8 4.9 5.2 3.5 68.8 0.0 66.3
4 Robinson Cano SEA 2B 34 97.8% 4.7 3.4 7.3 3.4 3.2 65.7 3.4 69.2
5 Joe Mauer MIN C 34 94.8% 2.7 3.4 2.3 1.5 3.5 53.4 4.7 58.1
6 Joey Votto CIN 1B 33 94.6% 6.3 7.5 4.0 7.6 3.7 54.8 11.5 66.3
7 Mike Trout LAA CF 25 94.5% 8.4 6.7 10.5 9.4 8.5 55.2 15.7 70.9
8 Zack Greinke ARI SP 33 93.3% 5.7 6.3 2.6 9.9 3.8 60.7 12.8 73.6
9 Clayton Kershaw LAD SP 29 92.7% 5.7 5.0 5.9 7.5 6.4 59.4 14.2 73.6
10 Jose Altuve HOU 2B 27 85.1% 7.5 8.3 7.6 4.5 7.7 29.6 39.6 69.2
11 Nolan Arenado COL 3B 26 83.7% 6.7 7.2 6.6 5.8 8.3 27.4 39.3 66.7
12 Mookie Betts BOS RF 24 82.3% 7.4 6.4 9.5 6.0 9.2 24.1 47.4 71.4
13 Buster Posey SFG C 30 79.7% 4.6 4.0 4.6 6.1 5.8 37.5 20.6 58.1
14 Kris Bryant CHC 3B 25 72.5% 6.6 6.1 7.7 5.9 8.7 19.7 47.0 66.7
15 Manny Machado BAL 3B 24 69.2% 5.1 3.5 6.7 7.1 9.0 27.9 38.8 66.7
16 Carlos Correa HOU SS 22 69.1% 5.8 6.3 6.0 4.1 10.3 16.3 50.3 66.7
17 Paul Goldschmidt ARI 1B 29 65.8% 6.0 5.8 4.8 8.8 6.1 34.8 31.6 66.3
18 Giancarlo Stanton MIA RF 27 65.5% 5.7 7.6 2.5 3.7 7.4 35.1 36.4 71.4
19 Justin Verlander DET/HOU SP 34 64.7% 5.8 6.4 6.6 2.2 3.4 56.6 17.0 73.6
20 Josh Donaldson TOR 3B 31 59.9% 6.4 4.8 7.5 8.8 5.1 37.3 29.3 66.7
21 Max Scherzer WAS SP 32 59.1% 7.2 7.6 6.3 7.6 4.2 45.6 27.9 73.6
22 Andrelton Simmons LAA SS 27 58.4% 5.6 7.1 4.2 4.0 7.3 28.6 38.1 66.7
23 Evan Longoria TBR 3B 31 57.2% 3.6 3.6 3.9 3.2 5.0 50.0 16.7 66.7
24 Craig Kimbrel BOS RP 29 56.3% 2.7 3.6 0.9 1.3 6.5 18.2 16.8 35.0
25 Francisco Lindor CLE SS 23 54.5% 5.4 5.5 5.7 4.6 9.8 15.8 50.9 66.7

Methodology

This uses Bill James' Favorite Toy to determine the probability that a player will reach the average career Wins Above Replacement of the average Hall of Fame player at his position.

When determining the average career WAR for a position, an adjustment is made that is similar to the JAWS system. So that all positions are equal to the position with the most Hall of Famers, the average career WAR is regressed towards the overall average of all position players. The degree in which a position is regressed is determined by how many players that position is short of the position with the most Hall of Famers. This adjustment is only made for position players.

For example, there are currently 15 catchers in the Hall of Fame, which is 9 players short of the position with the most players (RF). The adjustment will find the average of the 15 catchers AND 9 average Hall of Fame position players to determine the adjusted average Hall of Fame catcher.