Choose Metric:

    Baseball Hall of Fame

    329 Hall of Famers
    262 Players
    23 Managers
    34 Pioneers/Executives
    10 Umpires

    Eras Committees

    Committees Era Upcoming
    Today's Game 1988-Pres 2021, 2023
    Modern Baseball 1970-1987 2019, 2022
    Golden Days 1950-1969 2020, 2025, 2030
    Early Baseball 1871-1949 2020, 2030, 2040
    Show Links

    Links:


    Active Players

    Probability of Hall of Fame

    Glossary
    Methodology

    Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 2019 2018 2017 Yrs Career Needed HOFer
    1 Albert Pujols LAA 1B 39 100.0% 0.3 0.4 0.5 -1.9 1.5 100.3 0.0 66.7
    2 Mike Trout LAA CF 27 100.0% 8.6 8.3 10.2 6.6 7.3 72.5 0.0 70.9
    3 Robinson Cano NYM 2B 36 100.0% 1.8 0.3 3.2 3.5 2.0 69.6 0.0 69.2
    4 Miguel Cabrera DET 1B 36 100.0% 0.1 0.0 0.6 -0.7 2.3 69.6 0.0 66.7
    5 Zack Greinke ARI/HOU SP 35 99.4% 5.8 6.4 4.8 6.0 2.6 71.7 1.1 72.8
    6 Justin Verlander HOU SP 36 99.2% 7.0 7.8 6.2 6.3 2.2 70.9 1.9 72.8
    7 Clayton Kershaw LAD SP 31 96.4% 4.0 3.6 4.0 5.1 5.2 68.0 4.8 72.8
    8 Max Scherzer WAS SP 34 94.9% 7.3 5.8 9.5 7.5 3.0 60.3 12.5 72.8
    9 Mookie Betts BOS RF 26 89.6% 8.1 6.8 10.9 6.4 8.0 42.0 29.2 71.1
    10 Nolan Arenado COL 3B 28 86.2% 5.9 5.7 5.6 7.1 7.1 38.7 28.8 67.6
    11 Christian Yelich MIL LF 27 85.9% 6.8 7.1 7.6 4.2 7.5 33.6 33.9 67.5
    12 Francisco Lindor CLE SS 25 82.1% 5.9 4.7 7.9 5.5 8.6 28.6 38.3 66.8
    13 Alex Bregman HOU 3B 25 81.8% 7.1 8.4 6.9 3.8 8.8 20.8 46.7 67.6
    14 Joey Votto CIN 1B 35 73.2% 3.2 1.6 3.5 7.4 2.5 60.2 6.4 66.7
    15 Cody Bellinger LAD RF 23 71.3% 6.8 9.0 4.2 4.2 9.6 17.4 53.7 71.1
    16 Jacob deGrom NYM SP 31 64.0% 8.0 7.9 10.1 4.5 5.4 34.9 38.0 72.8
    17 Matt Chapman OAK 3B 26 63.0% 6.7 6.7 8.2 3.6 8.3 18.5 49.1 67.6
    18 Jose Altuve HOU 2B 29 54.1% 4.9 3.7 5.2 8.1 6.5 38.5 30.7 69.2
    19 Freddie Freeman ATL 1B 29 53.9% 5.0 4.4 6.1 4.4 6.1 37.4 29.3 66.7
    20 Manny Machado SDP 3B 26 52.9% 4.0 3.1 5.7 3.5 7.8 36.9 30.6 67.6
    21 Jose Ramirez CLE 3B 26 51.8% 5.4 3.3 7.9 6.9 7.9 25.3 42.2 67.6
    22 Aaron Nola PHI SP 26 44.4% 6.0 3.9 10.0 4.4 8.4 19.6 53.2 72.8
    23 Chris Sale BOS SP 30 44.2% 4.4 2.3 6.8 6.1 5.8 45.3 27.5 72.8
    24 Anthony Rendon WAS 3B 29 40.5% 5.6 6.3 4.2 5.9 6.6 27.3 40.2 67.6
    25 Trevor Story COL SS 26 39.9% 5.5 6.4 5.6 2.5 8.0 17.8 49.1 66.8
    Page: 1 , 2 , 3 ... 57
    bWAR data courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com

    Methodology

    This uses Bill James' Favorite Toy to determine the probability that a player will reach the average career Wins Above Replacement of the average Hall of Fame player at his position.

    When determining the average career WAR for a position, an adjustment is made that is similar to the JAWS system. So that all positions are equal to the position with the most Hall of Famers, the average career WAR is regressed towards the overall average of all position players. The degree in which a position is regressed is determined by how many players that position is short of the position with the most Hall of Famers. This adjustment is only made for position players.

    For example, there are currently 15 catchers in the Hall of Fame, which is 10 players short of the position with the most players (RF). The adjustment will find the average of the 15 catchers AND 10 average Hall of Fame position players to determine the adjusted average Hall of Fame catcher.