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Active Players

Probability of Hall of Fame


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 2019 2018 2017 Yrs Career Needed HOFer
1 Albert Pujols LAA 1B 39 100.0% 0.1 0.1 0.5 -1.9 1.5 99.9 0.0 66.7
2 Miguel Cabrera DET 1B 36 100.0% 0.0 -0.2 0.6 -0.7 2.3 69.4 0.0 66.7
3 Robinson Cano NYM 2B 36 100.0% 2.9 -0.1 3.2 3.5 2.0 69.2 0.0 69.2
4 Mike Trout LAA CF 27 98.5% 9.7 2.0 10.2 6.6 7.3 66.2 4.7 70.9
5 Justin Verlander HOU SP 36 95.8% 6.3 0.8 6.2 6.3 2.2 63.9 8.9 72.8
6 Zack Greinke ARI SP 35 95.5% 4.8 0.2 4.8 6.0 2.6 65.5 7.3 72.8
7 Max Scherzer WAS SP 34 94.1% 8.8 0.9 9.5 7.5 3.0 55.4 17.4 72.8
8 Clayton Kershaw LAD SP 31 94.0% 4.0 0.2 4.0 5.1 5.2 64.6 8.2 72.8
9 Joey Votto CIN 1B 35 88.7% 4.4 0.1 3.5 7.4 2.5 58.8 7.9 66.7
10 Mookie Betts BOS RF 26 88.1% 8.6 0.3 10.9 6.4 8.0 35.4 35.7 71.1
11 Christian Yelich MIL LF 27 84.0% 7.1 1.5 7.6 4.2 7.5 28.0 39.5 67.5
12 Manny Machado SDP 3B 26 80.6% 5.4 1.2 5.7 3.5 7.8 35.0 32.6 67.6
13 Jose Altuve HOU 2B 29 69.7% 6.2 0.8 5.2 8.1 6.5 35.6 33.7 69.2
14 Andrelton Simmons LAA SS 29 63.3% 5.9 0.2 6.2 7.0 6.1 35.0 31.9 66.8
15 Matt Chapman OAK 3B 26 60.6% 7.2 1.6 8.2 3.6 8.3 13.3 54.2 67.6
16 Jose Ramirez CLE 3B 26 60.3% 6.4 -0.4 7.9 6.9 7.9 21.6 46.0 67.6
17 Nolan Arenado COL 3B 28 59.7% 5.4 -0.1 5.6 7.1 7.1 32.9 34.6 67.6
18 Paul Goldschmidt STL 1B 31 58.0% 5.6 0.7 5.4 5.9 4.9 41.0 25.7 66.7
19 Chris Sale BOS SP 30 57.1% 5.5 -0.3 6.8 6.1 5.8 42.6 30.2 72.8
20 Freddie Freeman ATL 1B 29 53.4% 5.6 0.7 6.1 4.4 6.1 33.7 33.0 66.7
21 Aaron Nola PHI SP 26 52.7% 7.0 -0.2 10.0 4.4 8.4 15.5 57.4 72.8
22 Alex Bregman HOU 3B 25 49.3% 6.1 0.9 6.9 3.8 8.8 13.4 54.2 67.6
23 Cody Bellinger LAD 1B 23 47.7% 5.7 2.3 4.2 4.2 9.6 10.7 56.0 66.7
24 Giancarlo Stanton NYY RF 29 47.2% 4.9 0.2 4.0 7.9 6.2 39.7 31.4 71.1
25 Jacob deGrom NYM SP 31 44.3% 7.9 0.6 10.1 4.5 5.4 27.6 45.2 72.8
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Methodology

This uses Bill James' Favorite Toy to determine the probability that a player will reach the average career Wins Above Replacement of the average Hall of Fame player at his position.

When determining the average career WAR for a position, an adjustment is made that is similar to the JAWS system. So that all positions are equal to the position with the most Hall of Famers, the average career WAR is regressed towards the overall average of all position players. The degree in which a position is regressed is determined by how many players that position is short of the position with the most Hall of Famers. This adjustment is only made for position players.

For example, there are currently 15 catchers in the Hall of Fame, which is 10 players short of the position with the most players (RF). The adjustment will find the average of the 15 catchers AND 10 average Hall of Fame position players to determine the adjusted average Hall of Fame catcher.