Eras Committees
Committees | Era | Upcoming |
---|---|---|
Today's Game | 1988-Pres | 2021, 2023 |
Modern Baseball | 1970-1987 | 2019, 2022 |
Golden Days | 1950-1969 | 2020, 2025, 2030 |
Early Baseball | 1871-1949 | 2020, 2030, 2040 |
Show Links
Links:
- Official Site
- HoFers
- Education
- MLB.com
- Baseball-Almanac
- BR Bullpen
- Wikipedia
- ESPN
- Baseball-Fever
- Dressed to the Nines (Uniform Database)
Active Players
Probability of Hall of Fame
Rk | Player | Team | Pos | Age | Prob | EstLvl | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | Yrs | Career | Needed | HOFer |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Albert Pujols | LAA | 1B | 39 | 100.0% | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.5 | -1.9 | 1.5 | 100.3 | 0.0 | 66.7 |
2 | Mike Trout | LAA | CF | 27 | 100.0% | 8.6 | 8.3 | 10.2 | 6.6 | 7.3 | 72.5 | 0.0 | 70.9 |
3 | Robinson Cano | NYM | 2B | 36 | 100.0% | 1.8 | 0.3 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 69.6 | 0.0 | 69.2 |
4 | Miguel Cabrera | DET | 1B | 36 | 100.0% | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.6 | -0.7 | 2.3 | 69.6 | 0.0 | 66.7 |
5 | Zack Greinke | ARI/HOU | SP | 35 | 99.4% | 5.8 | 6.4 | 4.8 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 71.7 | 1.1 | 72.8 |
6 | Justin Verlander | HOU | SP | 36 | 99.2% | 7.0 | 7.8 | 6.2 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 70.9 | 1.9 | 72.8 |
7 | Clayton Kershaw | LAD | SP | 31 | 96.4% | 4.0 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 68.0 | 4.8 | 72.8 |
8 | Max Scherzer | WAS | SP | 34 | 94.9% | 7.3 | 5.8 | 9.5 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 60.3 | 12.5 | 72.8 |
9 | Mookie Betts | BOS | RF | 26 | 89.6% | 8.1 | 6.8 | 10.9 | 6.4 | 8.0 | 42.0 | 29.2 | 71.1 |
10 | Nolan Arenado | COL | 3B | 28 | 86.2% | 5.9 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 38.7 | 28.8 | 67.6 |
11 | Christian Yelich | MIL | LF | 27 | 85.9% | 6.8 | 7.1 | 7.6 | 4.2 | 7.5 | 33.6 | 33.9 | 67.5 |
12 | Francisco Lindor | CLE | SS | 25 | 82.1% | 5.9 | 4.7 | 7.9 | 5.5 | 8.6 | 28.6 | 38.3 | 66.8 |
13 | Alex Bregman | HOU | 3B | 25 | 81.8% | 7.1 | 8.4 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 8.8 | 20.8 | 46.7 | 67.6 |
14 | Joey Votto | CIN | 1B | 35 | 73.2% | 3.2 | 1.6 | 3.5 | 7.4 | 2.5 | 60.2 | 6.4 | 66.7 |
15 | Cody Bellinger | LAD | RF | 23 | 71.3% | 6.8 | 9.0 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 9.6 | 17.4 | 53.7 | 71.1 |
16 | Jacob deGrom | NYM | SP | 31 | 64.0% | 8.0 | 7.9 | 10.1 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 34.9 | 38.0 | 72.8 |
17 | Matt Chapman | OAK | 3B | 26 | 63.0% | 6.7 | 6.7 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 8.3 | 18.5 | 49.1 | 67.6 |
18 | Jose Altuve | HOU | 2B | 29 | 54.1% | 4.9 | 3.7 | 5.2 | 8.1 | 6.5 | 38.5 | 30.7 | 69.2 |
19 | Freddie Freeman | ATL | 1B | 29 | 53.9% | 5.0 | 4.4 | 6.1 | 4.4 | 6.1 | 37.4 | 29.3 | 66.7 |
20 | Manny Machado | SDP | 3B | 26 | 52.9% | 4.0 | 3.1 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 7.8 | 36.9 | 30.6 | 67.6 |
21 | Jose Ramirez | CLE | 3B | 26 | 51.8% | 5.4 | 3.3 | 7.9 | 6.9 | 7.9 | 25.3 | 42.2 | 67.6 |
22 | Aaron Nola | PHI | SP | 26 | 44.4% | 6.0 | 3.9 | 10.0 | 4.4 | 8.4 | 19.6 | 53.2 | 72.8 |
23 | Chris Sale | BOS | SP | 30 | 44.2% | 4.4 | 2.3 | 6.8 | 6.1 | 5.8 | 45.3 | 27.5 | 72.8 |
24 | Anthony Rendon | WAS | 3B | 29 | 40.5% | 5.6 | 6.3 | 4.2 | 5.9 | 6.6 | 27.3 | 40.2 | 67.6 |
25 | Trevor Story | COL | SS | 26 | 39.9% | 5.5 | 6.4 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 8.0 | 17.8 | 49.1 | 66.8 |
bWAR data courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com
Methodology
This uses Bill James' Favorite Toy to determine the probability that a player will reach the average career Wins Above Replacement of the average Hall of Fame player at his position.When determining the average career WAR for a position, an adjustment is made that is similar to the JAWS system. So that all positions are equal to the position with the most Hall of Famers, the average career WAR is regressed towards the overall average of all position players. The degree in which a position is regressed is determined by how many players that position is short of the position with the most Hall of Famers. This adjustment is only made for position players.
For example, there are currently 15 catchers in the Hall of Fame, which is 10 players short of the position with the most players (RF). The adjustment will find the average of the 15 catchers AND 10 average Hall of Fame position players to determine the adjusted average Hall of Fame catcher.