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Active Players

Probability of Hall of Fame


Rk Player Team Pos Age Prob EstLvl 2018 2017 2016 Yrs Career Needed HOFer
1 Albert Pujols LAA 1B 38 100.0% 0.4 0.5 -1.8 1.3 1.5 100.0 0.0 66.7
2 Adrian Beltre TEX 3B 39 100.0% 3.4 2.2 3.6 6.5 1.5 95.7 0.0 67.6
3 Miguel Cabrera DET 1B 35 100.0% 0.8 0.6 -0.8 4.7 2.9 69.4 0.0 66.7
4 Robinson Cano SEA 2B 35 99.9% 4.0 3.2 3.4 7.3 2.6 69.2 0.1 69.2
5 Mike Trout LAA CF 26 97.8% 9.0 10.2 6.7 10.5 7.9 64.3 6.6 70.9
6 Zack Greinke ARI SP 34 95.6% 4.9 4.8 6.4 2.6 3.2 65.7 7.4 73.1
7 Justin Verlander HOU SP 35 95.5% 6.5 6.3 6.5 7.2 2.8 63.4 9.7 73.1
8 Joey Votto CIN 1B 34 95.2% 4.9 3.5 7.5 4.0 3.1 58.8 7.9 66.7
9 Joe Mauer MIN C 35 95.1% 2.1 1.2 3.4 2.1 2.9 55.1 3.5 58.6
10 Clayton Kershaw LAD SP 30 94.7% 4.7 4.0 5.2 6.1 5.8 64.6 8.5 73.1
11 Max Scherzer WAS SP 33 93.4% 8.3 9.5 7.4 6.5 3.6 54.5 18.5 73.1
12 Mookie Betts BOS RF 25 88.8% 9.2 10.9 6.4 9.7 8.6 35.2 35.9 71.0
13 Jose Altuve HOU 2B 28 85.5% 6.7 5.2 8.3 7.7 7.1 35.1 34.2 69.2
14 Chris Sale BOS SP 29 85.1% 6.3 6.9 6.1 5.0 6.4 43.1 30.0 73.1
15 Nolan Arenado COL 3B 27 84.7% 6.3 5.6 7.2 6.6 7.7 33.1 34.5 67.6
16 Francisco Lindor CLE SS 24 82.4% 6.7 7.9 5.5 5.9 9.2 23.9 43.0 66.9
17 Jose Ramirez CLE 3B 25 79.2% 6.9 7.9 6.9 4.1 8.5 22.0 45.6 67.6
18 Andrelton Simmons LAA SS 28 78.7% 6.1 6.2 7.1 4.2 6.7 34.9 32.0 66.9
19 Manny Machado BAL/LAD 3B 25 78.3% 5.2 5.7 3.4 6.9 8.4 33.8 33.8 67.6
20 Christian Yelich MIL LF 26 67.1% 6.0 7.6 3.9 5.4 8.1 26.2 41.3 67.5
21 Aaron Nola PHI SP 25 66.7% 7.5 10.0 4.2 -0.2 9.0 15.5 57.5 73.1
22 Craig Kimbrel BOS RP 30 63.2% 2.5 2.3 3.6 0.8 5.9 20.2 13.1 33.3
23 Paul Goldschmidt ARI 1B 30 62.8% 5.4 5.4 5.8 4.7 5.5 40.1 26.5 66.7
24 Freddie Freeman ATL 1B 28 62.6% 5.6 6.1 4.5 6.5 6.7 33.1 33.6 66.7
25 Buster Posey SFG C 31 60.0% 3.6 2.9 4.1 4.9 5.2 41.3 17.3 58.6
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Methodology

This uses Bill James' Favorite Toy to determine the probability that a player will reach the average career Wins Above Replacement of the average Hall of Fame player at his position.

When determining the average career WAR for a position, an adjustment is made that is similar to the JAWS system. So that all positions are equal to the position with the most Hall of Famers, the average career WAR is regressed towards the overall average of all position players. The degree in which a position is regressed is determined by how many players that position is short of the position with the most Hall of Famers. This adjustment is only made for position players.

For example, there are currently 15 catchers in the Hall of Fame, which is 10 players short of the position with the most players (RF). The adjustment will find the average of the 15 catchers AND 10 average Hall of Fame position players to determine the adjusted average Hall of Fame catcher.