My project over the winter was to overhaul the site. I believe it is a big improvement and I hope that you will feel the same way. Much of the previous version is included and I have made some pretty big additions.
The biggest addition to the new site are the metric selections. Previously, the user had the choice between WAR, Win Shares, and Win Shares Above Bench. Now there two versions of Wins Above Replacement: rWAR (Baseball-Reference) and gWAR (my calculation). In addition, I have included an “Above Average” (WAA) and “Above Greatness” (WAG) option. I am willing to add other versions of WAR, so long as they are available and updated on a daily basis during the season.
The user now has the ability to customize WAR, WAA & WAG. You can mix and match the batting, fielding, & pitching components from both Baseball-Reference and The Baseball Gauge’s version. Or you can just use the average of the two metrics.
Since both Baseball-Reference and The Baseball Gauge’s pitching metrics are based on runs allowed, there is also an option to use a Fielding Independent Pitching based version of pitching WAR.
Finally, there is an option to regress the fielding component to zero. This is for those who feel that fielding should have less of an impact on a player’s overall metric.
*To use customized metrics, it is required that you have cookies enabled in your browser options. They are usually enabled by default.
Pennant & Wild Card Win Expectancies
These are the expectancy that each team will win the division/league/wildcard based on their record that day and the remaining schedule. This is taken from the glossary:
On every day of every season, the remanining schedules are simulated 100,000 times. In the simulations, all teams are equal except for that the home team gets a home field advantage. This home field advantage is the record for all home team’s from five years before and five years after the current season.
For example, when simulating the 1978 season, the home field advantage used is 53.96%. This was the winning percentage for all home team’s from 1973-1983.
For the strike shortened years of 1981 (first half) and 1994, the original schedules were simulated. This is why no team finishes with 100% during those seasons.
100,000 simulations of the remaining schedules from every day in Major League Baseball history is no easy task. There were roughly 1.8 trillion games simulated from 1871-2014.
Bill James Favorite Toy
Bill James described these as “A method that takes into account a player’s age and performance level in predicted the probability that he will accumulate certain career stats.” They are included in each player’s page as well as each seasons page.
These are found in each player’s page. Similarity Scores gauge how similar two players are based on their statistics. The user can choose between career stats and stats up to a certain age.
Mike Trout’s Similarity Scores
Baseball Gauge Awards
The Baseball Gauge Awards are given to the top (or bottom) player in various statistical categories. The method for choosing winners is purely based on statistics, with no voting involved.
The stistical formulas are mostly made up of Components Above Average. To be the leader in a certain category, a player needs to excel in a combination of rate stats AND counting stats
2015 Baseball Gauge Awards (Batting)
2015 Baseball Gauge Awards (Pitching)
Player vs Player
Ted Williams vs Joe DiMaggio
This allows the user to select two players and compare their metrics. It accessed by going to a player’s page and selecting “Player vs Player” in the “Comparison” drop down menu.
Developed by Jay Jaffe in 2004 at Baseball Prospectus. It is meant to gauge a player’s Hall of Fame credentials by comparing them to Hall of Famers at the same position. JAWS is the average of a player’s career total Wins Above Replacement and the total of their seven best seasons (peak).
Finally, Navigation has been improved. Table filtering will now automatically execute after a selection. There are other various additions and improvements throughout the site that would require to much time to highlight individually.