I’ve noticed a lot of talk recently about the Orioles and how they continue to outplay their Run Differential. As of today, they have a record of 60-51 with a run differential of -47, and have outplayed their pythagorean record by almost 10 games! I wanted to take a look at why, so I made this graph….
The red line shows how many games the average MLB team would have with that run difference. The Orioles are just about in line with the MLB average in terms of their losses, EXCEPT for their 1-run losses. While the average team would have 16 1-run losses, the O’s have just 6.
Looking at their victories, they have far more 1 and 2 run wins than average, but are slightly below average in victories of 3 runs or more (except for 6).
It also doesn’t help that they have just one victory of 9 or more runs, while they have lost by that deficit a total of 5 times.
Even with a superb bullpen, is this sustainable?